Mapping Pakistan’s Population Change (1990–2020)
Stories from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL)
🌍 A Living Map of Change
Between 1990 and 2020, Pakistan’s human geography has transformed.
Using Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data at 30-arcsecond resolution, this map visualizes where populations have grown (🟩), declined (💗), or remained uninhabited (⚪).
Each color tells a story about access — to water, land, jobs, and roads.
🌿 The Indus Spine — And the Web Beyond
At the national scale, population growth follows the Indus River corridor, Pakistan’s life artery.
But the GHSL data reveals a deeper pattern:
growth also radiates along communication and transport networks, especially the Grand Trunk (GT) Road and industrial corridors of Punjab.
The Lahore–Gujranwala–Sialkot–Faisalabad glows brightest — a region where population expansion mirrors economic connectivity more than mere fertility.
🏙️ Provincial Stories
Punjab — The Engine of Density
Punjab remains Pakistan’s demographic and economic core.
The Indus plain and GT Road belt show consistent green, reflecting sustained urbanization and rural densification.
Peripheral southwestern districts (Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur) grow more slowly, limited by irrigation reach and arid margins.
Sindh — The Urban Magnet
Sindh’s dual identity stands clear.
The Karachi–Hyderabad corridor expands aggressively, while eastern desert districts (Tharparkar, Umerkot, Badin) remain largely stagnant.
Migration from interior Sindh to Karachi underscores a shift from agricultural to service-based livelihoods.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — Valleys of Growth
KP’s population clusters along Peshawar, Mardan, Swat, and the fertile plains.
Mountainous and tribal areas show low growth, pointing to migration toward urban nodes and plains with better accessibility.
Balochistan — Sparse but Shifting
Balochistan’s vast landscape remains lightly populated.
Growth centers appear near Quetta, Gwadar, and Hub, linked to new trade routes and CPEC infrastructure.
Still, the province’s overall population density remains the lowest in Pakistan.
🛣️ Connectivity Shapes Demography
Across Pakistan, population growth traces the map of infrastructure.
Where there are roads, water, and electricity, there is settlement.
The Indus Basin provides water; the GT Road and industrial networks provide opportunity.
Together, they form Pakistan’s twin lifelines — hydrological and economic.
📈 The Policy View
The GHSL pattern emphasizes that: - Future growth will cluster along existing connectivity corridors. - Peripheral and arid regions risk demographic stagnation without water or infrastructure investment. - Urban planning must address the pressure along the Indus–GT corridor, where ecological and housing strains already intensify. - Rural development in less connected areas requires targeted infrastructure to stem out-migration. - Climate resilience is critical, as water scarcity could reshape settlement patterns.
🧭 Summary
The GHSL data doesn’t just map where people live — it maps how opportunity moves.
From river to road, Pakistan’s settlement geography reflects an enduring truth:
> People follow water, roads, and work — in that order.
Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL), European Commission, 1990–2020
Visualization: Prof. Dr. Zahid Asghar (QAU Islamabad)